Todays Big Stock: Canadian Natural Resources Limi (NYSE: CNQ)

It is nearly impossible to talk about chart patterns on stocks without eventually discussing the very common Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. An H&S pattern is a reversal pattern that forms after an uptrend. A textbook H&S pattern starts to form when a stock rallies to a point and then pulls back to a particular level (shoulder #1). Next, the stock will rally again, but this time to a higher peak (head) than the previous shoulder. After forming the head, the stock will pull back to the same support as the first shoulder did. Finally, the stock rallies a 3rd time, but not as high as the head (shoulder #2). The level that has been created by all 3 of the pullbacks is simply a support level referred to as the “neckline”. The formation of an H&S pattern warns of a potential reversal of the uptrend into a possible downtrend.

As with any chart pattern, a trader will usually not want to act on the pattern until the stock “confirms” the pattern. Confirmation is the break of the key level that has been created by the pattern.  In the case of an H&S, confirmation would be when the stock breaks the neckline (support).

What some new traders do not know is that H&S patterns can also form upside down after a downtrend. This pattern would simply be called an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. To see such a pattern forming, please take a look at the 1-year chart of CNQ (Canadian Natural Resources Limited) below with my added notations:

After a 7-month trend lower, CNQ has formed what appears to be an Inverse H&S (pink). I have noted the head (H) and the shoulders (S) to make the pattern more visible. (For future reference, if you imagine this pattern flipped upside down you would have a regular H&S pattern.) The neckline that CNQ’s Inverse H&S has formed is at the $38 level (green/red). CNQ would confirm the pattern by breaking up through the $38 neckline and the stock should be moving higher from there.

Lastly, keep in mind that simple is usually better. Had I never pointed out this Inverse H&S pattern, one would still think this stock is moving higher if it simply broke through the $38 resistance level.  In short, whether you noticed the pattern or not, the trade would still be the same: On the break above the key $38 level.

The Tale of the Tape: After a 7-month downtrend, CNQ formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. A long trade could be entered on a break above the $38 neckline with a stop placed under that level. In reality, since there is no guarantee that CNQ will break out at all, a trader could enter a short trade on a rise up to $38. Lastly, $33 (purple/navy) should act as support on any pull back.

Before making any trading decision, decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the highest probability of success. Do you prefer the short side of the market, long side, or do you want to be in the market at all? If you haven’t thought about it, review the overall indices themselves. For example, take a look at the S&P 500. Is it trending higher or lower? Has it recently broken through a key resistance or support level? Making these decisions ahead of time will help you decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the best opportunities.

No matter what your strategy or when you decide to enter, always remember to use protective stops and you’ll be around for the next trade.  Capital preservation is always key!

Good luck!
Christian Tharp, CMT