Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (NYSE: ALSN)

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. and its subsidiaries design, manufacture, and sell commercial and defense automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, and medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles. It offers transmissions for various applications, including distribution, refuse, construction, fire, and emergency on-highway trucks; school, transit, and hybrid-transit buses; motor homes; energy and mining off-highway vehicles and equipment; and wheeled and tracked defense vehicles. The company offers 13 transmission product lines with approximately 100 different product models. It markets its transmissions under Allison Transmission brand name and remanufactured transmissions under ReTran brand name.

To review Allison’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of ALSN (Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.) below with my added notations:

1-year chart of ALSN (Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.)

ALSN has been trading sideways for the last 3 or 4 months. Over that period of time the stock has formed a clear resistance level at $31 (blue). In addition, the stock has also created a strong level of support at $28.50 (green). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels the rectangle pattern has created.

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The Tale of the Tape: ALSN has clear levels of support ($28.50) and resistance ($31). The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $28.50, or on a breakout above $31. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $28.50.

Before making any trading decision, decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the highest probability of success. Do you prefer the short side of the market, long side, or do you want to be in the market at all? If you haven’t thought about it, review the overall indices themselves. For example, take a look at the S&P 500. Is it trending higher or lower? Has it recently broken through a key resistance or support level? Making these decisions ahead of time will help you decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the best opportunities.

No matter what your strategy or when you decide to enter, always remember to use protective stops and you’ll be around for the next trade. Capital preservation is always key!

Good luck!

Christian Tharp, CMT

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