Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs, markets, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for outdoor activities and casual lifestyle use for men, women, and children. The company offers luxurious comfort footwear, handbags, apparel, and cold weather accessories under the UGG brand name; sandals, shoes, boots, and amphibious footwear under Teva brand name; and action sport footwear under the Sanuk brand name. It also offers high-end casual footwear under the TSUBO brand name; outdoor performance and lifestyle footwear under the Ahnu brand name; and footwear for culinary professionals under the MOZO brand name, as well as running footwear under the Hoka One One brand name. The company sells its products primarily to specialty retailers, selected department stores, outdoor retailers, sporting goods retailers, shoe stores, and online retailers.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Deckers (NYSE: DECK) below with added notations:
After a strong decline from December until the end of January, DECK has been trading sideways over the last 3 months. During the sideways move the stock has formed a common pattern known as a rectangle. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern.
DECK’s rectangle pattern has formed a resistance at 77.50 (red), which was also a prior support, and a $700 support (green). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels.
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The Tale of the Tape: DECK is trading within a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $70 or on a breakout above $77.50. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $70.
Before making any trading decision, decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the highest probability of success. Do you prefer the short side of the market, long side, or do you want to be in the market at all? If you haven’t thought about it, review the overall indices themselves. For example, take a look at the S&P 500. Is it trending higher or lower? Has it recently broken through a key resistance or support level? Making these decisions ahead of time will help you decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the best opportunities.
No matter what your strategy or when you decide to enter, always remember to use protective stops and you’ll be around for the next trade. Capital preservation is always key!
Christian Tharp, CMT
Follow me on Twitter: @cmtstockcoach