Radian Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides mortgage and real estate products and services in the United States. It operates through two segments, Mortgage Insurance, and Mortgage and Real Estate Services (MRES). The Mortgage Insurance segment provides credit-related insurance coverage, principally through private mortgage insurance that protects mortgage lenders from all or a portion of default-related losses on residential mortgage loans made to home buyers, as well as facilitates the sale of these mortgage loans in the secondary mortgage market. The MRES segment provides outsourced services, information-based analytics, and specialty consulting services for buyers and sellers of, and investors in, mortgage- and real estate-related loans and securities, and other debt instruments.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Radian (NYSE: RDN) below with added notations:
RDN was on a nice trend higher from August until it’s December peak, but then the stock started a sideways move. In addition, twice over the last 5 months the stock had hit a level of resistance at $17.50 (green). That resistance level was also a 52-week high resistance. Back in mid-April RDN finally broke to a new high, and now that same $17.50 level provided support for the stock during Friday’s pullback.
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The Tale of the Tape: RDN broke out to a new 52-week high. A long trade could be made near $17.50 with a stop placed below that level. A break back below $17.50 would negate the forecast for a continued move higher.
Before making any trading decision, decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the highest probability of success. Do you prefer the short side of the market, long side, or do you want to be in the market at all? If you haven’t thought about it, review the overall indices themselves. For example, take a look at the S&P 500. Is it trending higher or lower? Has it recently broken through a key resistance or support level? Making these decisions ahead of time will help you decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the best opportunities.
No matter what your strategy or when you decide to enter, always remember to use protective stops and you’ll be around for the next trade. Capital preservation is always key!
Christian Tharp, CMT
Follow me on Twitter: @cmtstockcoach